FOOTBALL STATISTICS | SPANISH PROFESSORS RESEARCH PENALTY SHOOT-OUT VICTORY PROBABILITIES

Spanish London School of Economics professor Ignacio Palacios-Huerta assures that the team that goes first in a penalty shoot-out has a higher probability of winning the rival. According to a study done with follow Spanish professor José Apesteguia of the University Pompeu Fabra of Barcelona there is a 21% more chance of being victorious.

David Villa scores a penalty for Spain 

The investigation will be published next December in the “American Economic Review”. Both academics studied 269 penalty shoot-outs (2,820 shots at goal) from the years 1970 to 2008 & found that the first to start won 60,5 % of the time over the rival with 39,5%


This therefore changes the saying that a penalty shoot-out is a lottery. It is, but a 60% vs 40% lottery &thus al indicating that the flip of the coin to choose who shots first can determine the final outcome.


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